Recycled Bullsh-IT

Apparently, the Oxford English Dictionary’s word of the year is Vax, as in vaccinate. For those of us who were around in the Eighties & Nineties in IT, the Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC) VAX was also a pain in the, er, arm. The VAX was a 32-bit supermini computer running the VMS operating system and providing relatively cheap computer power compared to the IBM & ICL mainframes they were typically bought to replace.

DEC rapidly became the second largest computer company in the world after IBM, and then set the model for most IT companies since by spectacularly crashing and burning, through a breath-taking mix of hubris and stupidity. Refusing to join the UNIX bandwagon until too late, and then having their founder, Ken Olsen, state: “There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home” led to them being ignominiously bought by a PC company, Compaq, who were in turn subsumed and deleted by HP, a UNIX-based corporation.

The history of IT is filled with similar rise and fall stories of tech companies that saw spectacular growth and market domination (Sybase, CompuServe, Gateway 2000, Lotus, Novell, Blackberry, Friends Reunited, MySpace, etc), only to either plummet to a fiery death, or slowly and painfully decline as the world moved on around them. In 1991, IBM was the world’s most valuable company. In 2021 it is ranked 120th, about 5% of the value of top ranked (for now) Microsoft. At least it has survived and still has some old customers to screw.

So, what about the current batch of tech teen titans?

Old Man Microsoft looks in reasonable shape as it moves its customer base from a purchase model to a (locked-in) subscription model. Note though that IBM did this with their mainframe software, leading to most of their customers deserting them when they could.  Look out for increased moves to Linux, OpenOffice, and niche cloud providers.

Apple hasn’t found a replacement for the iPhone to fuel growth, so is moving into services and healthcare. With slowing growth in customer numbers, pinching more of their premium patrons’ pay packets might seem prudent but imperils profit by pushing people to their competition.

Alphabet and Facebook are so heavily dependent on digital advertising clicks that they are starting to annoy both their corporate sponsors (the companies advertising), and the elected representatives of the little people whose data they are leaching. Remember it’s the government’s job to spy on us, not private enterprise, so Big Brother is fighting back.

Amazon are on a journey to conquer the known universe, so I expect we will soon just have an Amazon deduction on our payslips as they teleport sustenance directly into us. Look forward to Amazon using our bodies to power the Matrix for real.

Will these mega corps turn into mammoth corpses? Of course, it’s just a case of when. But other shady schmucks will someday take their place to waste your IT budgets with shoddy services and broken promises.

“The Wheel of Time turns, and Ages come and pass, leaving memories that become legend. Legend fades to myth, and even myth is long forgotten when the Age that gave it birth comes again.”

John “Déjà vu” Moe